War between BJP and congress

Gujarat Assembly election: Why BJP may win fewer seats in 2017 than it won in 2012

A closer look at BJP in the upcoming two-phase Gujarat election.

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The ruling BJP has made the upcoming two-phase Gujarat electiona matter of prestige. Party president Amit Shah, who hails from Gujarat, has launched 'Mission 150' and set a winning target of three-fourths of the 182 seats in the state Assembly.

Shah has reiterated that when Narendra Modi was the Gujarat chief minister, the party had bagged 127 seats in 2002. Therefore, now when Mod is the prime minister, the party should garner 150 seats.

On the other hand, principal opposition party the Congress has launched an offensive against its rival. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi has taken the lead in seeking to puncture the BJP government's 'Gujarat model of development' by alleging joblessness and decelerating economic growth.

3 DECADES OF POWER STRUGGLE

Having remained out of power for 27 years in the western state, the Congress' aim is to dislodge the BJP and establish its rule once again. The Congress had won the last election in 1985. It lost the March 1990 Assembly election fought under the then chief minister, Madhavsingh Solanki, father of the incumbent Gujarat Congress chief Bharatsinh Solanki.

The BJP has been in power in Gujarat for almost 22 years now, since the 1995. The party was out of power for a brief period of about 18 months when the state came under President's Rule in September 1996.

It was followed by Shankersinh Vaghela splitting the party and forming government with Congress' support the same year. He was replaced with Dilipbhai Parikh in 1997. However, the 1998 election saw the return of the BJP under Keshubhai Patel.

BJP'S REDUCING SEATS AND VOTE SHARE

As against the Congress, the BJP has set an ambitious target of not just winning the state election but also registering an unprecedented victory.

The BJP has won three consecutive Assembly elections under Modi's leadership. Modi took over as the Gujarat chief minister replacing Keshubhai Patel in October 2001.

In the 2002 Assembly election, the party won 127 seats and garnered 49.8 per cent of the votes. It is the highest number of seats the party has ever won in the state.

In the 2007 Assembly elections, fought again under Modi as the chief minister, the BJP won 117 seats. Besides the number of seats, BJP's vote share also saw marginal decrease to 49.1 per cent.

In the last election fought under Modi as chief minister in 2012, both the BJP's seats and vote share reduced further. While the party won 115 seats, its vote share reduced to 47.85 per cent.Hence, between 2002 and 2012, which saw three Assembly elections, the BJP lost 12 seats and 1.95 per cent of vote share.

CONGRESS' IMPROVING PERFORMANCE

Though the Congress lost all the three Assembly elections since 2002 when Modi was the chief minister, the number of seats it has won has witnessed a steady increase. The vote share, however, has not followed a similar trend. But the party has succeeded in maintaining a base vote share of 38 per cent.

In 2002, the Congress won 51 seats getting 39.3 per cent of votes polled. In 2007, the number of seats it won increased to 59. However, its vote share marginally decreased to 38 per cent.

The 2012 election saw a further increase in the number of seats the Congress won. While it bagged 61 seats, it garnered 38.93 per cent of votes.

As a result, between 2002 and 2012, the Congress increased its number of seats by 10. Though its vote share fell from 39.3 per cent in 2002 to 38 in 2007, it again rose to 38.93 in 2012.